12 November 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
EUR/USD continues to decline for the third consecutive session, trading near 1.0640 during Asian hours on Tuesday. US President-elect Donald Trump's fiscal policies could negatively impact the European economy, putting pressure on the euro.
Expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates more aggressively than the Federal Reserve (Fed) are also weighing on the euro. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, with markets forecasting a rate cut to 2% by June. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 65.3% probability that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter percentage point at its December meeting.
The US Dollar (USD) continues to strengthen after confirmation of Trump's victory in the US election. Analysts believe that if Trump's fiscal policy is implemented, it could stimulate investment, spending and labor demand, potentially raising inflation risks. This could lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy, further supporting the dollar.
On Sunday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted that the U.S. economy is showing impressive resilience as long as the Fed works to keep inflation in check. However, Kashkari emphasized that the Fed is “not there yet” and will need further evidence that inflation will fully return to the 2% target before considering another rate cut.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
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