GBP/USD loses ground as Trump trade rises following the release of polls in favour of the Republican Party | 06 November 2024

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is reversing the gains made in the previous session. The decline in the currency pair is occurring concurrently with a strengthening of the US dollar (USD), which is gaining ground amid a strengthening of Trump's position in the polls ahead of the US presidential election.

The latest polling data indicates a close race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump currently holding a slight advantage. In the latest polls, Trump is ahead of Harris by 57% to 43% in the Kaloshi poll and by a slightly wider margin of 60.7% to 39.5% in the Polymarket poll. These figures demonstrate an increase in support for Trump as the election draws closer, although the race remains competitive.

The early exit polls in Georgia, one of the first states with available data, indicate a preference for the Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump. Preliminary data indicates that Trump has a 10% lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, although this estimate is based on less than 1% of the votes counted, according to a Washington Post report.

According to preliminary results from exit polls in Pennsylvania, Harris is in the lead, as reported by CBC News. Following the processing of approximately 8% of the anticipated votes, the results indicated a 71% majority for Kamala. Nineteen electoral votes are at stake.

The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday is attracting close attention from traders, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut widely held. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 96.4% probability of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's November meeting, reflecting the market's strong expectation of a moderate rate cut.

In terms of the British pound, the forthcoming Bank of England (BoE) rate decision, scheduled for Thursday, is anticipated to result in a further quarter-point rate cut. It is expected that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee will vote 7-2 in favour of reducing the main discount rate to 4.75% from the current 5.0%.

Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.

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