01 November 2024, EUR/USD
Events to watch out for today:
14:30 EET. USD - Change in Non-Farm Payrolls
16:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index
EURUSD:
The Euro-dollar pair extends its rally to 1.0885 in the early Asian session on Friday. The growth of the major pair is supported by the weakening of the US dollar (USD). All eyes will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data due for release later on Friday.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.1% year-on-year in September, up from 2.2% in August, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported on Thursday. The figure was in line with market expectations. On a month-on-month basis, PCE rose 0.2%, as expected.
Meanwhile, the core PCE price index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.7% over the same period, matching the August increase and beating the market estimate of 2.6%. On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE price index rose 0.3%, matching the consensus.
Traders will be watching for the release of U.S. employment data on Friday, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. A stronger than expected result could dampen hopes of a rate hike on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, boosting the Dollar against the Euro (EUR).
The European Central Bank (ECB) noted that inflationary pressures remain high, driven by wage growth. At its last meeting in October, the ECB reaffirmed its commitment to a “data-driven and meeting-by-meeting” approach to future policy decisions. Money markets are now pricing in a 34 basis points (bps) rate cut, down from 42 bps the day before, suggesting that the likelihood of a larger 0.5% rate cut is diminishing.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0850, trading mainly with Sell orders.
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