09 October 2024, GBP/USD
Event to pay attention to today:
21:00 GMT+3. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair ended a five-day losing streak on Tuesday, closing at a one-sixth of a percent gain. Despite a successful break by cable traders of the short-term losing streak, the pair remains below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Due to the lack of UK data in the first half of the trading week, those trading the pound will have to wait until Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy report hearing to gain further insight. On Friday, we will receive UK gross domestic product (GDP) data.
The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) September rate cut decision will be released on Wednesday, providing insights for those trading the dollar. Following the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September, markets had widely hoped for a follow-up double rate cut in November. However, core inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's target level, and last week's US labour market data, which exceeded expectations, has significantly diminished the likelihood of a rate cut.
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 90% probability that the Fed will follow September's sharp 50 bp rate cut with a more modest 25 bp cut. On November 7th, the probability is almost 90%. It is evident that Fed officials have indicated that a weakening US labour market would be a prerequisite for further significant rate cuts.
Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy y orders from the current price level.
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