07 October 2024, GBP/USD
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is posting modest gains near 1.3130, breaking a three-day losing streak in the early Asian session on Monday. However, the major pair's gains may be limited amid the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut bets following positive US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.
The Fed cut its rate cut cycle by 50 basis points (bps) in September, but a stronger than expected outlook has reduced the likelihood of a repeat of a larger-than-‘normal’ rate cut. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, financial markets now estimate the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in September at nearly 97.4%, down from 31.1% prior to the release of the NFP data.
The NFP report showed that the US economy added 254k jobs in September compared to 159k previously, which was better than forecasts. Average hourly earnings rose to 3.8% from 3.6% in the same period. Finally, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September from 4.2% in August.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is rising after the Bank of England (BoE) may take a more aggressive approach to cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, Bank of England Chief Economist Hugh Peel said that the UK central bank should act gradually by cutting interest rates. Financial markets were divided over whether the Bank of England's rate cut in November would be followed by another cut in December. The Bank of England has not cut rates at consecutive meetings since 2020.
Trading Recommendation: We follow the level of 1.3100, in case of consolidation below we consider Sell positions.
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