Eurozone inflation fell below ECB target in September | 02 October 2024

EURUSD:

The EUR/USD pair is trading slightly higher around 1.1070 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Meanwhile, any signs of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could weigh on risky assets such as the euro (EUR).

Traders are still assessing the likelihood of a sharp rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in November after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the US central bank is in no hurry and will lower the benchmark rate “over time”. Financial markets now estimate the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November at nearly 37.4%, while the probability of a 25 bps rate cut is 62.6%, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.

Unfavorable economic data from the U.S. on Tuesday undermined the dollar. The US manufacturing PMI from ISM was unchanged at 47.2 in September, weaker than expectations of 47.5. The report pointed to a continued contraction in the US manufacturing sector.

Eurozone inflation declined in September, falling below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target level. The harmonized consumer price index (HICP) rose 1.8% in September, down from 2.2% in August, Eurostat said on Tuesday. The figure was the lowest since April 2021. The eurozone economy may not be out of the woods yet, even despite encouraging inflation data for September. The ECB cut interest rates to 3.50% in September and has also hinted that another cut may be in the near future.

Fears of an expanding war in the Middle East could put pressure on the common currency and boost safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar. Iran launched more than 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to retaliate against Iran for the missile attack.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.1070, if the level is fixed above consider Buy positions, if the level rebounds consider Sell positions.

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