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Waiting for the news background on the dollar

Waiting for the news background on the dollar | 04 September 2024

04 September 2024, EUR/USD

Waiting for the news background on the dollar

Events to watch out for today:

11:00 GMT+3. EUR - Composite PMI

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Foreign Trade Balance

EURUSD:

EUR/USD continued to decline on Tuesday before ending the day back near 1.1050. Price movement remains limited as markets prepare for the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data this week, but a drop in the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has renewed fears of a looming recession.

Meaningful European data remains limited in the first half of the trading week, and traders will be hard at work on Thursday thanks to updated pan-European retail sales data for July, as well as preliminary US employment data ahead of Friday's NFP release.

Pan-European retail sales for the year to July are expected to rebound slightly, with a 0.1% y/y rise from the previous -0.3% decline. European gross domestic product (GDP) data is also scheduled for Friday, and growth in the second quarter is expected to remain broadly in line with previous readings.

The ISM US Manufacturing PMI for August came in below expectations at 47.2, falling short of the median forecast of 47.5. Despite a soft rebound from July's multi-month low of 46.8, it failed to cheer markets, giving already cautious investors a great excuse to pull back from the recent lopsided bias towards bullish expectations.

Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is of great importance. It represents the last round of key US labour data before the Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its latest rate decision on 18 September. Friday's NFP report is expected to set the tone for market expectations regarding the depth of the Fed's rate cut, as investors are already fully geared up for the start of a new round of rate cuts this month.

Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.1085, if the level is fixed above we consider Buy positions, if the level bounces back we take Sell positions.

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David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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