Pound aims for new records | 22 August 2024

Events to watch out for today:

11:30 GMT+3. GBP - Composite PMI

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims

16:45 GMT+3. USD - Composite PMI

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair broke above the 1.3100 price level on Wednesday. The pair is heading towards fresh 13-month highs, having set a peak intraday price at 1.3112, and sterling is threatening to reach its highest prices against the US dollar since April 2022.

The 1.3120 price level reached on Wednesday could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 2023 high near 1.3140. Some follow-through buying would confirm the constructive bias and set the stage for a continuation of the recent strong uptrend seen over the past fortnight or so. The GBP/USD pair can be targeted to overcome the 1.3200 price level and test the 1.3225-1.3230 resistance zone.

The US Bureau of Labour Statistics announced a sharp 800k drop in the March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, sharply revising previous job growth data downwards. The jobs change prompted markets to increase bets on a double rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. On Wednesday, bets on a rate cut rose further after minutes from the Fed's last meeting showed that policymakers at the U.S. central bank had already begun discussing when to start cutting interest rates as early as July.

On Thursday, the UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is expected to rise slightly, with the services PMI component rising to 52.8 from 52.5. The business activity index for the manufacturing sector is expected to remain unchanged at 52.1.

Thursday is also scheduled for the release of the US PMI business activity survey, as well as the start of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, which runs through the weekend. Wednesday will see the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest meeting, but overall markets will be focused on Thursday's results for reasons to move.

The US manufacturing S&P Global PMI for August is expected to be unchanged at 49.6, while the Services PMI is expected to drop a full point to 54.0 from 55.0. The start of the Jackson Hole symposium is expected to attract investors' attention on Thursday, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Friday will set the general tone for market sentiment early next week.

Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level

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