12 August 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0920 today during the Asian session on Monday. Traders are awaiting the preliminary Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter, due for release on Wednesday.
The risk-sensitive Euro may struggle due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Iran's military movements indicate preparations for a major strike on Israel. According to Axios author Barak Ravid, this potential action is in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July.
As for the dollar, investors are likely to focus on Tuesday's U.S. producer inflation data and Wednesday's consumer inflation data. Traders are looking for confirmation that price growth remains stable.
Expectations of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September could put pressure on the US Dollar (USD), potentially providing support for EUR/USD. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 51.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, well above the 26.0% probability indicated a week ago.
On Sunday, Fed Chair Michelle Bowman said she still sees upside risks to inflation and continued strength in the labor market. That suggests the Fed may not be ready to cut rates at its next meeting in September, Bloomberg reported.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0950. Consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0900.
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