19 July 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined, retracing to the 1.0900 mark as the US dollar rebounded in trading. A rise in weekly US jobless claims provided further support for the view that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut rates in September, while the European Central Bank (ECB) resisted calls to act in response to uneven economic data and decided to keep rates unchanged for now.
In light of the ECB's decision to maintain current interest rates in July, market participants will be monitoring next week's inflation data. The euro will receive little data on Friday, so investors will wait for inflation data next Tuesday to assess the likelihood of a further rate cut following the ECB's initial cut in June.
On Thursday, initial jobless claims in the US increased by more than anticipated, with 243,000 new claims for unemployment benefits filed in the week ending 12 July. This represents an increase from the projected 230,000 and is above the previous week's revised figure of 223,000. Against the backdrop of softening labour market data, expectations of a rate cut in September will further intensify. However, there is little room for further movement in the odds of a Fed rate cut, with markets already pricing in a near 100% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on 18 September.
Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0900, when fixing above it we take Buy positions, when rebounding we take Sell positions.
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