15 July 2024, USD/JPY
Event to pay attention to today:
19:30 GMT+3. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is declining on Monday as the US dollar (USD) strengthens amid growing risk aversion over the attempted assassination of former US President Donald Trump on Saturday. Analysts have indicated that if the event enhances Trump's prospects in the forthcoming election, it could result in "Trump victory trades", which may reinforce the US dollar and accentuate the steepness of the US Treasury yield curve, as reported by Reuters.
The Japanese yen (JPY) may experience volatility due to speculation of Japanese government intervention. According to data released by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Friday, it is estimated that the Japanese authorities may have spent between ¥3.37 trillion and ¥3.57 trillion on Thursday to stabilise the Japanese yen, as reported by Reuters.
The recovery in the Japanese yen, which had reached near 38-year lows, commenced on Thursday amidst a weakening US dollar (USD) following the release of data indicating a moderate increase in US consumer prices in June. The event served to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as September.
CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that there is an 88.1% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, up from 72.2% a week earlier.
Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.
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