04 July 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD briefly rose above 1.0800 in response to US economic data that broadly failed to meet expectations. This has led to fresh hopes for an acceleration in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and a market pullback from the safe haven US Dollar.
On Thursday, European data was mixed. The EU Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 m/m in June, compared to a forecast of 50.8. The EU producer price index declined more than expected in May, falling -0.2% m/m versus a forecast of -0.1%.
The ADP US employment change fell to 150k in June from the previous month's 157k, falling short of the forecasted increase to 160k. The ADP report also showed that many of the job losses were concentrated in the low-paying leisure and hospitality sectors.
Furthermore, the number of individuals filing initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending 28 June increased to 238,000 from 233,000 the previous week, exceeding the forecast of 235,000. The four-week average of initial jobless claims also rose to 238.5,000 from 236.25,000.
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) saw a significant decline in June, reaching 48.8, its lowest point since June 2020. This represents a notable decrease from the previous month's reading of 53.8, falling below the projected decline to 52.5.
Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Buy orders from the current price level.
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