28 June 2024, GBP/USD
Events to pay attention to today:
09:00 GMT+3. GBP - Gross Domestic Product
15:30 GMT+3. USD - United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index m/m
GBPUSD:
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair fluctuated in familiar charts between the long-term moving averages, with price movement centred between the 1.2700 and 1.2600 marks. The data from the US was not as strong as anticipated, and market sentiment shifted towards the middle as investors await key US inflation data on Friday.
In advance of the pivotal US inflation data, the US presidential election is anticipated to commence on Friday morning. Investors will be monitoring the statements of all US presidential candidates for any indications of potential policy plans.
Additionally, the UK will release revised gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter during the London market window. The consensus among market analysts is that UK GDP growth will remain in line with the initial 0.6% QoQ reading.
The initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending 21 June were better than expected, with 233k new claims for unemployment benefits compared to the forecast of 236k. This was down slightly from the previous week's 238k. The four-week average of initial jobless claims increased to 236,000, resulting in a new weekly figure that is below the average.
On Thursday, the US gross domestic product (GDP) met expectations, with the first quarter GDP revised slightly to 1.4% from an initial reading of 1.3%. Additionally, core personal consumption expenditures saw a modest increase in the first quarter, reaching 3.7% q/q compared to a projected 3.6%. The upcoming presidential debate, which begins after the market close on Thursday, will attract investors' attention as they look for potential policy clues from the candidates.
On Friday, investors will be monitoring the US PCE Price Index in anticipation of further declines in US inflation, which would facilitate a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The core PCE price index is forecast to decline from 0.2% to 0.1% m/m in May.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with sell orders at the price level of 1.2610. We consider buy orders at the price level of 1.2670.
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