Pound's rise against the dollar in doubt | 31 May 2024

An event to look out for today:

15:30 GMT+3. USD - Change in personal income/expenditures

GBPUSD:

The GBP/USD pair is rising near 1.2720 in the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under selling pressure, which provides some support to the major pair. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) price index for April, due for release later on Friday.

The expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will start cutting interest rates from its August meeting could put pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP). However, investors have lowered expectations for a June rate cut as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April showed that price pressures eased more slowly than anticipated.

The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter (Q1) than previously estimated. The second estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) showed that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.3% in the first quarter versus 1.6% in the previous quarter, in line with market expectations, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday.

In addition, initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ended May 25 rose to 219,000 from 216,000 the previous week, beating the market consensus forecast of 218,000. Pending home sales in April fell to -7.7% for the month from 3.6% in March.

Many Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have emphasized the need for longer increases in borrowing costs to contain persistently high inflation. This, in turn, could lead to a rise in the US Dollar and limit the pair's gains. The U.S. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, is expected to rise 0.3% in April from the previous month. This indicator may provide some insight into the trajectory of inflation.

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