31 May 2024, EUR/USD
Events to watch out for today:
12:00 GMT+3. EUR - Core consumer price index m/m
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Change in personal income/expenditures
EURUSD:
The EUR and USD pairing dipped to 1.0790 on Thursday before a recovery in the broad market forced the dollar lower. US gross domestic product (GDP) growth fell in line with market expectations and investors hoping for a rate cut are taking a cautious step forward ahead of key data to be released on Friday.
Fresh data on the pan-European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) will be released on Friday. May HICP core inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%, while HICP core inflation is also expected to rise by 2.5% from the previous reading of 2.4%.
Key US data will be released later on Friday, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to be released during the US market session. According to average market forecasts, core PCE inflation for the year ended April will remain at 2.8%, while core PCE inflation for the month will be 0.3%.
U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter slipped to 1.3% from a previous reading of 1.6%, matching market forecasts and raising hopes for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a higher chance of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in September. With current rate cuts, the probability that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged in September is only 49%, while the probability that rates will be cut by at least a quarter point is over 50%.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0840. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0795.
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