10 May 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
EURUSD strengthened on Thursday, charting gains for the week after the US Dollar (USD) generally declined as a rise in US jobless claims sparked fresh hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Initial jobless claims in the US rose to 231k in the week ending May 3, the highest since August last year. After possible signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, markets hungry for a rate hike shifted to risk.
Currently, CME's FedWatch tool shows that interest rate markets estimate a nearly 70 percent probability of at least a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting. Traders also estimate a 67 percent probability of a second Fed rate cut before the end of 2024.
Despite the broad market's hopes for a Fed rate cut this year, Fed opinion continues to lean toward caution. San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly noted Thursday that the inflation outlook remains uncertain and a recent downturn in employment data seems unlikely.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0795. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0740.
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