22 April 2024, GBP/USD
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is showing a modest recovery from the 1.2365-1.2360 area, or the lowest level since November 14, reached during Monday's Asian session, and so far appears to have broken a two-day losing streak. The rebound has been supported by a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) and spot prices have moved back closer to 1.2400 in the last hour, although a significant rise still seems out of reach. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep rates higher for longer due to still-volatile US inflation are helping to limit the USD's decline and could limit the core rate. The Federal Reserve (Fed) looks set to reconsider its plans to ease monetary policy due to ongoing U.S. inflation and strong macroeconomic data. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, the probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the June meeting rose markedly to 63.5% from 46.8% the previous week. On Friday, the Pound Sterling (GBP) fell against the US Dollar to its lowest level since November, hitting 1.2426. Heightened tensions in the Middle East likely prompted traders to seek refuge in the US Dollar. However, market forecasts for an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) have been adjusted, with the rate now expected to fall to 4.75% by the end of 2024, down from the current rate of 5.25%. This differs from the previous expectation of a rate cut to 4.5% by December.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.2400. If consolidated, consider buying.
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