25 March 2024, GBP/USD
GBPUSD:
On Friday, the Office for National Statistics released data that UK retail sales were better than expected and unchanged in February. This figure was above the market consensus of a 0.3% decline and was a good sign for the economy as the UK entered a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of economic contraction in the second half of last year. On Thursday, market participants will be focused on UK GDP growth data, which is estimated to have contracted 0.3% QoQ and 0.2% YoY in the fourth quarter. Stronger than expected data could boost the Pound Sterling (GBP) and serve as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.
Renewed bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin cutting interest rates in June could limit the US Dollar's gains. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated last week that policymakers plan to cut rates before the end of this year given that economic growth continues. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, federal funds futures are pricing in a 74.5% probability that the Fed will cut rates at its June meeting.
Today, market participants will be watching the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index and U.S. new home sales for February. Later there will be speeches of the head of the Fed Rafael Bostic and the head of the Bank of England Catherine Mann.
Trading recommendation: Trade with buy orders when the price reaches 1.2635. Sell at the price level of 1.2590.
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