15 February 2024, EUR/USD
Events to watch out for today:
10:00 EET EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speech
15:30 EET USD - Retail Sales m/m
EURUSD:
During Thursday's Asian session, the EUR/USD pair is hovering around 1.0730, attempting to extend gains for the second day in a row. The downward pressure on EUR/USD may be attributed to the weakening of the US dollar (USD), as evidenced
by the decline in the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bond yields, with the 2-year yield at 0.56% and the 10-year yield at 0.23%. There has been a significant shift in market sentiment, with the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) adjusting interest rates at its upcoming March meeting now estimated at almost 90%.
The FedWatch tool indicates that investors now place the probability of a rate cut in May at 37%, with the probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in May rising to around 53%.
However, the Euro (EUR) struggled on Wednesday after the release of seasonally adjusted Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data that met market expectations for Q4.
The preliminary Eurozone GDP data remained unchanged at 0.1% YoY, in line with market forecasts. In quarterly terms, the indicator remained at 0.0%, the same as the previous quarter.
Furthermore, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos highlighted the continued existence of high wage pressures, suggesting that there is insufficient data to confirm any easing of these pressures.
Market participants are eagerly anticipating a speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for Thursday. Turning to the US economic calendar, retail sales data and initial jobless claims will be the focus of attention.
Trading recommendation: Trade in the price range 1.0700 - 1.0760
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