12 February 2024, EUR/USD
EURUSD:
In the early hours of Asian trading on Monday, buyers are showing interest in EUR/USD near the 1.0800 mark. Although there were no significant US data releases last week, several Federal Reserve officials and European Central Bank policymakers will provide insight into the interest rate outlook later this week. The most important data this week will be US inflation and retail sales for January.
On Saturday, ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta stated that the central bank should reduce interest rates soon. He suggested that taking timely and gradual steps could help reduce volatility in financial markets and the economy. Additionally, ECB chief Mario Centeno expressed his preference for a gradual and steady reduction in interest rates, rather than a quick one. Market expectations for the first rate cut have been pushed back from April to June. Investors now estimate a total of 125 basis points (bps) of easing over the next 12 months, down from 150 bps at the beginning of the month.
Inflation data will take centre stage overseas on Tuesday, with core CPI forecasted to be 3.0% y/y compared to 3.4% in December, and core CPI forecasted to be 3.8% y/y compared to 3.9% in December. If the data is stronger than expected, the Fed may postpone the easing cycle, which would support the US Dollar (USD). A number of Fed officials have stated that they require more time to observe whether inflation continues to decline. Minneapolis FRB President Neel Kashkari and Boston FRB President Susan Collins concurred that the FOMC could take into account additional economic data before reducing interest rates.
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