09 February 2024, EUR/USD
Event to watch out for today:
09:00 EET. EUR - CPI m/m
EURUSD:
During the early Asian session on Friday, EUR/USD is trading weakly. The major pair remains within the weekly range at 1.0770/80.
On Wednesday, two US Federal Reserve officials stated that the central bank is on track to fight inflation, but it is too early to start cutting interest rates. Markets are increasingly expecting a rate cut at the March meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that futures traders are pricing in a greater than 65% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates by its next meeting in May.
On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane stated that data suggests disinflation will occur more rapidly than anticipated in the near term. However, further progress is required to achieve the 2% target. Meanwhile, ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch stated that although there are some encouraging signs on wages, they are not sufficient for the ECB to begin winding down its restrictive policy. Wunsch added that he would prefer to wait for more data before cutting rates.
The next ECB meeting is scheduled for 7 March, and market participants anticipate that the central bank will provide an indication of the timing of the rate cut. A negative statement could result in a decline in the euro (EUR) and act as a headwind for EUR/USD.
Next, market participants will monitor the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January and President Buba Germany Nagel's speech. Traders will focus on this data to identify trading opportunities for EUR/USD.
Trade recommendation: If the price consolidates below 1.0700, we start selling. In case of overcoming the mark 1.0830 - buy.
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