22 November 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
The European Central Bank has time now to assess how inflation unfolds after a record string of rate hikes but victory has not yet been won and bets based on short term data flow are premature, ECB President Christine Lagarde said. "This is not the time to start declaring victory," Lagarde said in a speech in Berlin. "We need to remain focused on bringing inflation back to our target, and not rush to premature conclusions based on short-term developments." Traders now expect the ECB's next move to be a rate cut in either April or June and see more than 90 basis points of easing before the end of 2024. A key risk for inflation is rapid wage nominal wage growth, even if the ECB so far only sees a "catch up" process after workers lost real incomes to the inflation surge.
Investment idea: range 1.0880 - 1.0970.
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