14 November 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
The European Central Bank will hold interest rates steady well into next year. It seems that not much has to happen to push the eurozone into recession. ECB has acknowledged growth has been weaker than it expected. But that doesn't mean that the ECB is in a hurry to cut rates. An earlier than expected rate reduction would likely require a recession deep enough to prompt easing even if inflation remains above the ECB's 2% target. For now, the U.S. Federal Reserve is forecast to ease policy a little earlier than the ECB, by end-Q2, although most traders say the greater risk to their forecasts is that it moves later. The ECB, which began raising rates several months later than the Fed, could weaken the euro and introduce unwanted imported inflation if it moved before the Fed.
Investment idea: range 1.0630 -1.0730.
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