30 October 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
The American consumer is sending a message to the Fed and continuing to spend. Friday's reports from the United States show that consumption growth and inflation remain on trend. Disposable income is up 0.3% m/m and 7.1% y/y, with real income having fallen for four consecutive months since September (-0.1% m/m) but up 3% y/y. Expenditure is growing rapidly and does not seem to be stopping any time soon, up 0.7% m/m and 5.9% y/y, while real income is up 0.3% m/m and 1.9% y/y. Americans have also been increasing their spending on both goods and services and do not seem to be stopping any time soon. The result is active consumption growth, stable "Powell inflation" and rising inflation expectations. Formally, the Fed should continue to tighten in this situation.
Investment idea: sell 1.0570 and take profit 1.0515.
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