28 June 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
The ECB has raised rates at each meeting over the past year, taking its deposit rate to 3.5%, and promised more tightening as soon as July as it attempts to curb inflation still running at three times its 2% target. Euro zone inflation has entered a new phase which could linger for some time, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said, outlining a lengthy fight against price growth that must dampen demand and force firms to curb prices. "It is unlikely that in the near future the central bank will be able to state with full confidence that the peak rates have been reached," Lagarde told the ECB. A recession would be expected to shake out the labour market, making the ECB's job easier but firms, remembering the difficulty of hiring back workers after the pandemic, are now hoarding labour, putting upward pressure on wages. Markets see the ECB's deposit rate peaking at 4%, suggesting that after July's 25 basis point increase, another move is likely, either in September or October.
Investment idea: sell 1.0979 and take profit 1.0907.
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