02 June 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Germany is leading the biggest rally in global bond markets as cooling inflation and a weakening economy suggest European Central Bank rate hikes are nearing an end. Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points this week. Alongside British and U.S. peers, yields - which move inversely to bond prices - were set for their biggest weekly declines since mid-March when banking turmoil sparked a dash to safe-havens. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. A chance of 4% was priced in last week. Euro zone bank lending slowed again in April, a factory downturn deepened and economic sentiment in the bloc and Germany - which slipped into recession in early 2023 - deteriorated more than expected in May.
Investment idea: range 1.0720 -1.0820.
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