12 April 2023, GBP/USD
GBPUSD trading plan:
The U.S. inflation data for March is forecast to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%, according to fresh poll of economists. After surging almost 3% in February, the USDX fell 2.3% in March and 0.5% so far in April as the banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last month has added to bets that the Federal Reserve would not raise rates as high as previously expected in order to ease stress on the sector. Inflation data could be the difference between a 25bp hike or pause at the Fed's next meeting in May. The money markets could quickly revert to price a policy pause if the inflation data comes in softer than expected.
Investment idea: buy 1.2388 and take profit 1.2466.
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