02 March 2023, EUR/USD
EURUSD trading plan:
Money markets were expecting the ECB deposit rate to peak at 4% in December, from 2.5% at present, pricing in another 50-basis point increase in May and then a steady grind higher in the remainder of the year. "The interest rate step announced for March will not be the last," Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, a policy hawk who favours higher rates, said in a speech. "Further significant interest rate steps might even be necessary afterwards, too." Inflation in France, Spain and Germany all exceeded expectations last month, suggesting that the euro zone number, to be published on Thursday, could be more than half a percentage points above the 8.2% projection of economists. And underlying inflation, which filters out volatile food and food prices, also showed no signs of easing - a key argument the hawks are likely to use to push for more hikes.
Investment idea: buy 1.0610 and take profit 1.0690.
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