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Avoiding the hard-landing

Avoiding the hard-landing | 05 January 2023

05 January 2023, USD/JPY

Avoiding the hard-landing

USDJPY trading plan:

US recessions have been preceded by an inverted yield curve — when short term rates exceed those of longer tenors — since the late 1960s. Despite the curve being inverted for the ninth time since 1968, it’s probably not a harbinger for a recession. One of the reasons is precisely the fact the yield curve-growth relation has become so well-known and widely covered in popular media that now it impacts behavior. The awareness induces companies and consumers to take risk-mitigating actions, such as boosting savings and avoiding major investment projects — which bode well for the economy. Another strong booster is coming from the job markets, where the current excess demand for labor means laid-off workers will likely find new positions more quickly than typical. This is a good signal for the stock market and USDJPY, which has a correlation with the shares.

Investment idea: buy 132.16 and take profit 133.05.

David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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