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A first ECB rate hike to June?

A first ECB rate hike to June? | 04 February 2022

04 February 2022, EUR/USD

A first ECB rate hike to June?

EURUSD trading plan:

The ECB kept policy on hold but at its post-meeting news conference, Lagarde acknowledged the bloc's inflationary situation has changed following a record high January reading. Christine Lagarde chose not to repeat her past comment that a 2022 rate hike was very unlikely. The inflation forecasts will be revised higher in March and the market is concluding that the conditions set out in the ECB’s forward guidance will be met at some point in 2022. Money markets raced to bring forward bets on a first ECB rate hike to June, pricing in a more than 90% chance of a 10-bps move, and more than 40 bps worth of hikes by the end of the year. This is a positive signal for the European currency.

Investment idea: buy 1.1429 and take profit 1.1490.

David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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