ECB's positive macroeconomic forecasts

11 June 2021, EUR/USD

ECB's positive macroeconomic forecasts

EURUSD trading plan:

In the first quarter of the year, euro area real GDP declined further, by 0.3 per cent, to stand 5.1 per cent below its pre-pandemic level of the fourth quarter of 2019. Business and consumer surveys and high-frequency indicators point to a sizeable improvement in activity in the second quarter of this year. The growth to continue to improve strongly in the second half of 2021 as progress in vaccination campaigns allows a further relaxation of containment measures. Over the medium term, the recovery in the euro area economy is expected to be buoyed by stronger global and domestic demand, as well as by continued support from both monetary policy and fiscal policy. This assessment is broadly reflected in the baseline scenario of the June 2021 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. These projections foresee annual real GDP growth at 4.6 per cent in 2021, 4.7 per cent in 2022 and 2.1 per cent in 2023.

Investment idea: buy 1.2170 and take profit 1.2240.

David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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