Weekly Review. S&P500, oil, gold | 16 декабря 2016

Weekly chart: breakout of upper Bollinger band is a distinct bullish signal. Now a rollback to middle band (2167.5) would be technically justified.

Daily chart: the pair is overbought and 3 bars beyond Bollinger envelopes - it shows readiness for correction. We are waiting for a shift to new extremes and later starting downward rollback towards 2200.8 (middle Bollinger band)

Expectations: wait for a shift to new extremes and later downward rollback towards 2200.8

Solutions:

1. Buy with Take Profit at any counter-signal

2. Sell around 2200.8 after short signals are shaped.

Brent

Monthly chart: bulls have momentum advantage, but ADX is not growing yet. Uptrend is likely to reach 65.96 (upper Bollinger band). However, continuing flat around middle band (49.63) is more relevant now

Weekly chart: localized resistance level 54.61 (upper Bollinger band) may send price to middle band (49.63, see blue arrow). If bulls succeed in breaking the level 54.61, potential for reaching 65.96 will be developed.

Daily chart: there might be trading around upper Bollinger band (56.35). However, in more localized frames we can see bearish Over&Under pattern from 54.61, so any rounding of Bollinger envelopes would be a confirmation signal for going down.

Expectations:

Core scenario - rise towards 56.35 and later downward rollback towards 49.63

Alternative scenario - drop towards 54.61

Solutions: look for signals for downward move around 54.61 and 56.35.

Gold

Monthly chart: bears keep breaking out of lower Bollinger envelope, so there might be a drop towards 1035.43 (lower Bollinger band)

Weekly chart: two intermediate support levels are 1142.27 and 1082.57. The fifth bar in a row is closed beyond Bollinger Bands, which is a very strong signal for a reversal. So on any of these levels signals to buy are possible.

Daily chart: there remains a downward move potential. Support level is possible in 1146.37

Expectations:

Core scenario - drop towards 1142.27 or even towards 1082.57 and later an upward reversal.

Alternative scenario - flat in 1147.37.

Solutions: sell around 1142.27 and later look for possible signals for upward move.