Positive dynamics of the oil market | 14 August 2020

#WTI:

The Chief Executive Saudi Aramco Amin Nasser said that oil consumption in Asia, Aramco’s largest regional market, has almost returned to pre-coronavirus levels, and he sees oil demand increasing as economies gradually open up after the easing of coronavirus lockdowns. U.S. dollar weakness is a hallmark of most bull markets. Low interest rates force investors to increase short positions on the U.S. dollar. This is a positive signal for the oil market! The decrease in dollar rates on the interbank market continues in New York and London. The situation looks especially interesting in London, where the three-month Libor rate is approaching a five-year low.

Trading recommendation: Buy 41.50 and take profit 42.90

#SP500:

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 1.763 million, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from a revised 4.791 million in the month through mid-June. A broad range of forecasts ahead of the report had generated an average estimate of 1.65 million jobs created. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% of the working population, from 11.1% in June. That's below a consensus forecast of 10.5%.This is positive news for the U.S. stock market. The economy, which entered into recession in February, suffered its biggest blow since the Great Depression in the second quarter, with gross domestic product dropping at its steepest pace in at least 73 years. Positive news on the labor market signals a recovery in economic growth.

Trading recommendation: Buy 3344 and take profit 3391.

XAUUSD:

Donald Trump signed four executive orders during the weekend to, among other things, extend unemployment benefits of $400 instead of the $600 under the previous package, suspend of the collection of payroll taxes for social security and ban tenant evictions. This is a positive signal for the U.S. stock market and a negative signal for gold, since both assets have an inverse correlation. Gold theoretically has a constant value for paper money, so when money depreciates, the price of gold in dollars rises, which we observe this year. Now the real interest rate in the US is -0.35%. This is a positive signal for gold!

Trading recommendation: range 2000 -2044.