Crude oil rally | 28 July 2023

#SP500:

A U.S. stocks rally faces a potential inflection point next week as the Federal Reserve is expected to deliver what may be the final rate hike of its most aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle in decades. As the year began, many traders expected higher interest rates to bring on a recession that would further hurt stocks after 2022's sharp decline. Instead, the U.S. economy is proving resilient even as the Fed has made progress in its inflation fight - an ideal "Goldilocks scenario" that many believe will support equities. While investors broadly anticipate the central bank will raise rates by 25 basis points at its July 26 meeting, many also hope for signs that policymakers are more confident inflation will continue cooling, eliminating the need for the Fed to lift borrowing costs much further and supporting the thesis that has helped buoy stocks in recent weeks.

Trading recommendation: sell 4570 and take profit 4385.

#IBM:

The company was able to please traders with its positive financial results. Software revenue up 7 percent. Year to date net cash from operating activities of $6.4 billion, up $1.8 billion; free cash flow of $3.4 billion, up $0.1 billion. “In the quarter, revenue performance was led by our growth vectors of software and consulting, and we continued to expand our gross profit margin, driven by our improving portfolio mix and productivity initiatives," said James Cavanaugh, IBM senior vice president and chief financial officer. "This year we have leveraged our strong cash position to invest for growth, announcing seven acquisitions to bolster our hybrid cloud and AI strategy, while continuing to return value to shareholders through dividends.”

Trading recommendation: buy 134.96 and take profit 139.38.

#WTI:

Oil prices rose nearly 2% to record a fourth consecutive weekly gain, buoyed by growing evidence of supply shortages in the coming months and rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine that could further hit supplies. Global supplies are starting to tighten and that could accelerate dramatically in the coming weeks. Increased war risk could also impact prices. In the U.S., crude inventories fell last week, amid a jump in crude exports and higher refinery utilisation, the Energy Information Administration said. Earlier on Monday, the EIA had forecast that U.S. shale oil and gas production was likely to decline in August for the first time this year, adding to concerns of supply tightness.

Trading recommendation: buy 75.50 and take profit 78.40.