Hedge funds have bought crude oil | 14 апреля 2023

#SP500:

Federal Reserve data released showed deposits at all commercial banks rose to $17.35 trillion. The second and third largest bank failures in U.S. history forced federal regulators to guarantee all deposits at both institutions and prompted the Fed to take emergency actions to restore confidence in the banking system. At the same time, however, lending to businesses and consumers by banks held steady with $12.07 trillion in loans outstanding as the month neared its end, up fractionally from a week earlier. While loans for both commercial and residential real estate, and for commercial and industrial loans, a benchmark for business credit, each fell marginally, the declines were offset by a pickup in consumer loans led by credit card balances. This is a positive signal for the US stock market.

Trading recommendation: buy 4081 and take profit 4187.

XAUUSD:

Policy-sensitive Treasury notes fell, sending two-year yields back above 4%, as a solid hiring report bolstered bets for another Federal Reserve rate increase. The two-year yield jumped 15 basis points to 4.02% after March’s hiring report showed resiliency in the labor market that could enable the Fed to make policy more restrictive. Payroll additions topped 200,000, wage-growth slowed and the unemployment rate dropped. This payrolls info is still indicating that the job market is on solid ground, but the magnitude of the payrolls gain relative to expectations is not significant enough for the Fed to dramatically shift course.

Trading recommendation: range 1937 -2017.

#WTI:

The traders weighed further production cuts targeted by OPEC+ and falling U.S. oil inventories against fears about the global economic outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, surprised the market with a pledge of production cuts. Hedge funds have bought crude all week, moving from the sidelines back into risk on mode. Prices drew support from a steeper-than-expected drop and a second consecutive weekly drawdown in U.S. crude inventories last week. Gasoline and distillate inventories also declined, hinting at rising demand. U.S. energy firms this week also cut the number of oil rigs for a second week in a row. The rig count, an early indicator of future output, dropped two to 590 this week, Baker Hughes data showed.

Trading recommendation: buy 79.00 and take profit 83.00.