The bullish rally in the oil market! | 26 марта 2021

#WTI:

The International Energy Agency unambiguously points to the rise in oil prices! In 1st quarter of 2021, oil consumption will amount to 93.9 million b/d. In the 2nd quarter, the figure will increase by 1% to 94.9 million bpd, and in 3d quarter the figure will grow by 2.9% to 97.7 million bpd. Supply will be limited throughout the year due to the OPEC + deal, which will create a shortage and contribute to the reduction of reserves in oil storage tanks. OPEC + Alliance in February completed a deal to limit oil production by 112%.

Trading recommendation: buy 60.80 and take profit 63.50.

#SP500:

The Federal Reserve expects GDP growth to 6.5%, against the previous forecast of 4.2%. The unemployment rate will fall from 5% to 4.5%, while inflation will be 2.4%. FED does not plan to raise the discount rate in 2021-2022. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear earlier last week that the central bank will maintain its stance of aggressive monetary stimulus, saying a near-term spike in inflation would prove temporary even though the Fed is projecting the strongest U.S economic growth in nearly 40 years. The Fed keeps repeating that inflation will be allowed to overshoot and that they need to see the inflation first before anything related to tightening can be just barely considered. This is a positive signal for the stock market!

Trading recommendation: Buy 3894 and take profit 3977.

XAUUSD:

Gold logged a second-straight weekly gain, indicating that investors in the yellow metal were getting adjusted to a rising dollar and spiking U.S. bond yields as the “new normal” they had to navigate in a higher inflation environment. Gold rose on the week despite yields benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury note hitting a 13-month high above 1.72%.Investor uncertainty grew this week after Fed Chairman Jay Powell in his monthly news conference on Wednesday declined to give any hint of the central bank buying more bonds than previously. Surging yields since the start of the year have been limiting the rally in risk assets.

Trading recommendation: buy 1710 and take profit 1740.