01 July 2014, EUR/USD
Euro
The Eurozone CPI first evaluation report was the main event on the first day of the new trading week. The economists surveyed by the Bloomberg news agency expected the decrease in inflation to 0.6% year on year. At the end of the previous week, we got the release on the Germany inflation, which indicates contraction inflationary pressures. The consumer spending in the Eurozone major economies was reduced, which is negatively to the consumer price growth.
The support levels are 1.3570- 1.3590, and the resistance levels are 1.3650 - 1.3670.
MACD is in a positive territory.
Trading recommendations
The scenario looks like the pair growth continuation. We recommend to long to 1.3700. The confident level of 1.3700 breakdown would open the way to the level of 1.3725. We can talk about the sellers’ growing influence only after fixing the pair below 1.3613, from which it is likely to further decrease to the support level of 1.3585.
Pound
We don’t expect the interesting macroeconomic releases from the UK. The inflation negative report in the euro area will pressure the cross-course EUR/GBP which in turn will support some demand for the British currency against U.S. dollar. From the technical analysis - the GBP/USD pair is short-term overbought that will act as a pound deterrent growth. In general, we can expect the moderately rising trend development today.
The support levels are 1.7050 - 1.7070, and the resistance levels are 1.7110 - 1.7130.
MACD is in a positive territory.
Trading recommendations
We advise to open the short positions below 1.7000 with the target of 1.6950
Yen
The industrial production release was published in Japan. This release is always in the center of attention of investors. The leading indicators suggest that recent data came a little worse than expected, the equipment volume orders was greatly reduced in May - as a result we see the fall in production. The trade balance showed a decline in net exports.
The support levels: 99.80- 101.00, and the resistance levels: 101.40- 101.60.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory.
Trading recommendations
The stock market showed a decrease as usual, the dollar/yen has come under pressure, the pair may continue its decrease to 101.09. If we get positive statistics from the U.S. dollar could recover some losses, a short rebound is possible.
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