GBPUSD: SELL 1.3660, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3560 | 07 July 2025

Events to pay attention to today:

11:30 EET. GBP - Construction PMI

GBPUSD:

On Thursday, the GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuated near the lower limit of the short-term decline, which was facilitated by pressure from sellers, causing the US dollar to fall after US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data came in higher than expected. Markets had expected results below forecasts after preliminary ADP employment data for the week showed a sharp decline in private sector jobs, but a sharp increase in public sector education jobs offset the decline in private sector employment.

The UK government is struggling with an uneven economic downturn, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer is trying to maintain control of the situation. The Prime Minister has been criticised for failing to implement the sharp cuts in social benefits that were a key part of his election manifesto, as well as for not abandoning tax increases, which has angered both the markets and his political supporters in the UK.

Strong net employment growth in the US, reflected in the NFP data, also undermined hopes for a rate cut in the broader market. The June employment results dispelled any market expectations of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting at the end of the month, and the likelihood of three rate cuts before the end of the year was also called into question.

Trading recommendation: SELL 1.3660, SL 1.3680, TP 1.3560

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