GBPUSD: BUY 1.3775, SL 1.3695, TP 1.3875 | 02 July 2025

Event to pay attention to today:

01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks

01.07 16:30 EET. GBP - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks

01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI

GBPUSD:

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, fell to its lowest level since February 2022 amid expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in the near future. Traders believe there is about a 74% chance of a rate cut as early as September.

The Senate approved a procedural vote to open debate on Trump's comprehensive “One Big Beautiful Bill.” This bill would increase the federal budget deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next decade. In addition, the prevalence of risk is contributing to the bearish sentiment around the safe-haven US dollar. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.

Investors will be looking for signals on the central bank's policy outlook. In addition, US macroeconomic data - the ISM manufacturing PMI and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - should provide meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental background favors bullish traders.

Trading recommendation: BUY 1.3775, SL 1.3695, TP 1.3875

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