Uncertainty over the BoJ rate hike and risk-on sentiment are undermining the safe-haven yen | 08 November 2024

08 November 2024, USD/JPY

Uncertainty over the BoJ rate hike and risk-on sentiment are undermining the safe-haven yen

Events to pay attention to today:

17:00 EET. USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment

18:00 EET. USD - FOMC Member Michelle W. Bowman Speaks

USDJPY:

The Japanese yen (JPY) is depreciating against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a recovery from its lowest level since 30 July. The latest data, released on Thursday, revealed a decline in real wages in Japan during September. This, coupled with the rising cost of living, is exerting downward pressure on household spending and could have an adverse impact on the inflation outlook. It is anticipated that this will result in the Bank of Japan (BoJ) postponing its plans for additional rate hikes, given the current domestic political uncertainty. This is likely to have an adverse impact on the value of the yen.

Furthermore, the prevailing risk-off sentiment is exerting downward pressure on the Japanese yen, which, along with the emergence of US dollar (USD) dip buying, is providing support to the USD/JPY pair. Nonetheless, the recent decline in the value of the yen has prompted the Japanese authorities to issue verbal intervention. Furthermore, the winding down of the Trump trade and the lack of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed) serve as a headwind for US Treasury yields, which could deter those betting against the yen and limit the currency pair.

Trade recommendation: We follow the level of 153.00, when fixing above it we consider Buy positions, when rebounding we consider Sell positions.

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David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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