15 October 2024, GBP/USD
GBPUSD:
On Monday, GBP/USD encountered resistance at the 1.3000 level, with markets maintaining a calm tone ahead of key UK data releases in the first half of the trading week. The UK's payroll and jobs data are scheduled for release on Tuesday, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures are scheduled for release on Wednesday. The midweek will conclude with the release of US retail sales data on Thursday, while UK retail sales data will be released in the London session on Friday.
It is anticipated that UK employment data for the quarter ended August will show further signs of softening. The average market forecast is for the annualised measure of average earnings excluding bonuses for the quarter ended August to fall from the previous reading of 5.1% to 4.9%. The change in UK jobless claims is forecast to decline to 20.2k in September from 23.7k in August. Meanwhile, the ILO unemployment rate in the UK is anticipated to remain at 4.1% for the three-month period ended August.
The first half of the trading week will be focused on data related to the British pound, with the release of UK CPI inflation data scheduled for Wednesday. The core CPI is forecast to decline to 1.9% from the previous reading of 2.2%. However, UK core CPI is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, reaching 3.4% from 3.6%.
The next significant data release from the US is scheduled for Thursday, when US retail sales are expected to accelerate to 0.3% m/m in September, following a relatively subdued 0.1% m/m in August. However, the primary focus of traders will be on the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy report, scheduled for release on Thursday. The trading week will conclude on Friday with the release of UK retail sales data, which is expected to show a decline of -0.3% m/m in September, down from the previous reading of 1.0%.
Trading recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell y orders from the current price level.
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