22 August 2024, USD/JPY
Events to watch out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits
16:45 GMT+3. USD - Composite PMI
USDJPY:
Traders expect Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda to address parliament on Friday, where he will discuss the central bank's decision to raise interest rates last month.
A Reuters poll conducted from 13 to 19 August and published on Wednesday showed 31 of 54 economists expect the BoJ to raise borrowing costs before the end of the year. The median forecast points to a 25 basis point hike, bringing the year-end rate to 0.50 per cent.
The US Dollar (USD) rose on Thursday, helped by a small recovery in Treasury yields. However, USD gains may be limited as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points (bps) in 2024. Market analysts remain divided on whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its September meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed cutting the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its September meeting is 65.5%, up from 71.0% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut rose to 34.5% from 29.0% a day earlier.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 145.90. We consider sell orders at the price level of 145.20.
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