20 August 2024, GBP/USD
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD rose by a third of a percent after the US dollar continued to retreat. US Dollar flows extended a short-term reversal in the exchange rate as investors brushed off the recent downturn in market sentiment. Troubled data from the US reignited investor fears of an impending recession in the US.
The middle of the week is quiet as markets await the release of key data on Thursday as well as the start of this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. All three of these events are expected to hit the markets on Thursday.
The UK Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reading for August is expected to remain at a high level. The UK manufacturing PMI for the month is expected to be unchanged at 52.1, while the services PMI is expected to rise to 52.8 from 52.5 over the same period.
On the other side of the Atlantic, US PMI data is expected to soften on Thursday. The US manufacturing PMI for August is expected to fall slightly to 49.5 from 49.6, while the services PMI is expected to fall a full point to 54.0 from 55.0.
At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which kicks off a multi-day central bank extravaganza on Thursday, investors around the world will be watching for any signals from Fed policymakers about the likelihood of a rate cut in September.
The latest bets for a double rate cut in September have fallen significantly since peaking at 70% two weeks ago. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the betting markets rate the probability of a 50bp rate cut. Sept. 18 as one in five. Overall, markets are still fully factoring in the likelihood of a 25 bps rate cut in September, with three or four quarter-point rate cuts expected before the end of the year.
Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level
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