07 June 2024, EUR/USD
An event to look out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Change in the number of employed in the non-agricultural sector
EURUSD:
EUR / USD returned to short-term highs on Thursday, dipping below 1.0870 in early market trading, but then recovered and settled into familiar technical levels just below 1.0900 by the close of the U.S. market session.
The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered its long-awaited quarter-point rate cut this week, but ECB sources said it is unlikely that ECB policymakers will deliver another rate cut in July as many investors had expected. With markets generally expecting a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, it is unlikely that the rate differential between the euro and the U.S. dollar will widen as much as previously expected.
According to the CME's FedWatch tool, traders estimate a 70 percent chance that the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting.
Final European gross domestic product (GDP) data will be released today, but markets are not expecting strong fluctuations from preliminary data. First-quarter EU GDP is expected to come in at 0.3% and annualized GDP is expected to come in at 0.4%.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will dominate the market on Friday, with average forecasts expecting US net job gains for May to rise to 185k from 175k in the previous month. Average hourly earnings in the US are also expected to rise 0.3% for the month, up from the previous reading of 0.2%.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0905. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0860.
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