30 May 2024, EUR/USD
Events to pay attention to today:
12:00 GMT+3. EUR - Unemployment Rate
15:30 GMT+3. USD - GDP q/q
17:00 GMT+3. USD - Pending Home Sales m/m
18:00 GMT+3. USD - EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
EURUSD:
On Wednesday, the EUR/USD declined sharply, reaching 1.0800 after risk appetite waned. The pair settled at technical resistance as investors prepared for the release of mid-level European economic indicators on Thursday, followed by an update on quarterly US gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
The pan-European consumer confidence gauge for May is expected to remain unchanged at -14.3, while the overall economic sentiment indicator is expected to recover slightly to 96.2 from 95.6. After that, US quarterly GDP is expected to be released during the day. Annualised GDP for the first quarter is expected to fall slightly to 1.3% from 1.6%. Markets are awaiting signs of a softening US economy as robust growth, a tight labour market and still-high inflation figures hamper the Fed's ability to cut rates at the pace investors expect.
The CME's FedWatch tool currently rates the odds of the Fed holding rates steady in September as slightly better than even, but traders continue to look for reasons to raise rates for rate cuts.
The trading week will conclude on Friday with the release of German retail sales data, which is expected to contract by -0.1% m/m in May. The pan-European core harmonised consumer price index (HICP) for the year to May is expected to rise to 2.8% from 2.7%. The US inflation data will conclude the trading week. The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% m/m in April.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
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