17 May 2024, EUR/USD
Event to watch out for today:
12:00 GMT+3. EUR - Consumer Price Index
EURUSD:
The Euro-dollar pair continues to lose ground, trading near 1.0860 during Asian hours on Friday. From a technical perspective on the daily chart, the analysis points to a sideways trend for the pair as it continues to stay within a symmetrical triangle. Overcoming the upper boundary could shift the momentum to a bullish direction.
Traders have already priced in a June rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB policymakers have been cautiously nudging markets lately, but on Thursday, ECB Governing Council member and Latvian central bank governor Martins Kazaks said a June rate cut is definitely being considered. Next week, markets will be keeping a close eye on purchasing managers index (PMI) data due out in both the EU and the US.
Fed officials continue to be the focus of investor attention, with several policymakers from the US central bank giving speeches on Thursday. Fed officials have generally maintained a cautious tone in an attempt to temper the market's hopes of a Fed rate cut. Currently, the CME's FedWatch tool shows that betting markets are pricing in a 70% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September by at least a quarter point, and a 90% chance that the Fed will cut rates two more times before the end of the year.
Several central bankers are expected to speak on Friday, with a speech by the ECB's Luis de Guindos and speeches by Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller and Mary Daly to round out the trading week.
Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0875, if it bounces, take Sell positions.
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