15 April 2024, EUR/USD
An event to look out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Change in retail trade volume
EURUSD:
EUR/USD rose to 1.0650 during the Asian session on Monday, recovering from a five-month low of 1.0622 reached last Friday. The U.S. dollar (USD) strengthened thanks to increased dollar buying due to geopolitical turmoil, which contributed to the EURUSD's decline. Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) presented diverging monetary policy forecasts. The ECB indicated that if core inflation continues to slow in line with expectations, a rate cut may be considered in June.
High U.S. inflation and strong macroeconomic indicators are prompting the Fed to reconsider its plans to ease monetary policy. The probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the June meeting rose to 63.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, up from 46.8% the previous week. On Monday, investors will keep a close eye on seasonally adjusted Eurozone industrial production data and U.S. retail sales.
Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Susan Collins said on Friday that she expects "about two" rate cuts in 2024, but expects inflationary pressures to ease later this year. She emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the timing of potential rate cuts and noted that while a rate hike is not currently part of the baseline scenario, it cannot be completely ruled out.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with buy orders at the price level of 1.0685. We consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0630.
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