12 April 2024, USD/JPY
Events to watch out for today:
17:00 EET. USD - Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan
21:30 EET. USD - FOMC member Rafael Bostic will give a speech
22:30 EET. USD - FOMC member Mary Daly will give a speech
USDJPY:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) fluctuated in a narrow trading range against its U.S. counterpart during the Asian session on Friday and consolidated significant losses this week to its lowest level since 1990. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has given few signals as to when it will raise interest rates next, while markets are now betting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates until at least its September meeting. This, in turn, suggests that the large rate differential between the US and Japan will persist for some time, which, along with a stable performance in equity markets, continues to undermine the safe-haven Yen.
The US dollar, on the other hand, has been holding near its peak since the beginning of the year amid expectations that the Fed will take longer to raise rates amid still volatile inflation. This becomes another factor that provides support to the USD/JPY pair, although bulls seem reluctant to make aggressive bets amid recent verbal warnings from Japanese officials that they will intervene in the markets to stop the yen from weakening further. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop indicates that the path of least resistance for the currency pair lies to the upside, and any significant corrective decline is likely to be seen as a buying opportunity.
Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level
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