14 March 2024, GBP/USD
Events to watch out for today:
14:30 EET USD - Change in retail trade volume
16:30 EET USD - Change in natural gas reserves
GBPUSD:
GBPUSD is holding near the 1.2800 mark in the early hours of Asian trading on Thursday. The moderate growth of the major pair is supported by a weak US dollar. However, the cautious mode in the market ahead of a key event in the US could boost the dollar and limit the pair's gains.
On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK's monthly GDP rose by 0.2% in January, compared to the previous decline of 0.1%. However, the improved data failed to lift the Pound as investors believe that the UK economy is likely to end the 2023 H2 recession. Meanwhile, industrial production fell 0.2% in January compared to December's 0.6% month-on-month figure.
Keep a close eye on the US retail sales data for February, which could influence the Fed's future actions. The figure is expected to rise 0.8% m/m after a 0.8% drop in January. A stronger-than-expected report may convince the Fed to shift to a less accommodative stance. According to CME FedWatch Tools, Fed funds futures now expect a rate cut this year by 71 basis points (bps) versus 95% earlier in the week.
Trading recommendation: Sell at the price level of 1.2770
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