26 February 2024, EUR/USD
Event to watch out for today:
17:00 EET. USD - New Home Sales
18:00 EET. EUR - ECB President Lagarde Speech
EURUSD:
In the early Asian session on Monday, EUR/USD is trading lower due to moderate gains in the US Dollar (USD). The US PCE inflation data for January will be in the spotlight this week, which may cause market volatility.
The minutes from the 30-31 January FOMC meeting suggest that interest rates are likely at the peak of this tightening cycle. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will assess incoming data to determine whether the current stagnant trend in U.S. inflation is temporary or sustainable. Thursday's Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE) price index may provide insight into the trajectory of US inflation. Weaker-than-expected data could put pressure on the US Dollar and support EUR/USD.
European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers aim to wait for first-quarter data to confirm that inflationary pressures are easing. However, an increase in wage growth will enable them to slightly loosen the current monetary policy. While ECB members have agreed to ease policy, there is no clear consensus on the timing. Several policymakers will wait for more data before taking action.
On Wednesday, market participants will be watching for the Q4 annualised US gross domestic product data. Thursday will see the release of German retail sales data for January and the first reading on the consumer price index. This week, the US Core PCE consumer spending price index will be released on Thursday. Traders will focus on this data and look for trading opportunities on EUR/USD.
Trading recommendation: We follow the level of 1.0840 and trade from it on the rebound.
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